Long Tail

Curve flattened! Strict rules on people’s movements and behaviors has resulted in a flat curve. Locations recording both infections and deaths over time vary. A steep or exponential increase is devastating and generally indicates uncontrolled disease speed.

Strict measures to contain virus spread in a population will flatten the curve. Either keep the rates constant, flat or even decline.

But with a relentless virus that does not go away like seasonal flu. Not only secondary outbreaks but continued outbreaks over long periods of time are not only possible but likely. The flattest curves will result in the longest tails. We are going to live with this for much longer than we think.

Wanna Shine

I just wanna shine like the sun when it comes up

Run the city from the rooftops

‘Cause today’s gonna be my day

I just wanna climb to the top of a mountain

Stand tall when I’m howlin’

‘Cause today’s gonna be my

Day’s gonna be my

Day’s, day’s, day’s, day’s, day’s

Goodnight stress, see you in the morning

I don’t gotta guess, you’re always there for me

Sowing them seeds of doubt, I think you like seeing me freak out

Goodnight stress, see you in the morning

So wake up, I get out of bed

Stay up, stay out of my head

‘Cause it’s dangerous

And I don’t wanna lose my mind, no

I just wanna shine like the sun when it comes up

Run the city from the rooftops

‘Cause today’s gonna be my day

I just wanna climb to the top of a mountain

Standing tall when I’m howlin’

‘Cause today’s gonna be my day

I used to lay low, hiding in the shadows

So don’t give me dark days, I already had those

I’m just trying to figure out how to be myself right now

I don’t wanna lay low, hiding in the shadows

So wake up, I get out of bed

Stay up, stay out of my head

‘Cause it’s dangerous

And I don’t wanna lose my mind, no

I just wanna shine like the sun when it comes up

Run the city from the rooftops

‘Cause today’s gonna be my day

I just wanna climb to the top of a mountain

Standing tall when I’m howlin’

‘Cause today’s gonna be my day

Wake up, and I stay up

‘Cause I’m shook up, days are up and

If I get out of my way

I just wanna shine like the sun when it comes up

Run the city from the rooftops

‘Cause today’s gonna be my day

I just wanna climb to the top of a mountain

Standing tall when I’m howlin’

‘Cause today’s gonna be my day

I Wanna Shine byFitz and the Tantrums, 2019

Second Wave

If you take an action and the effect can only be seen or detected two weeks later. The action and reaction can seem unconnected.

People moving around, gathering, not isolating, not wearing masks, thinking that it’s over, thinking we know what we’re dealing with, thinking that normal behavior is more important, thinking that it will not effect them.

This will cause a spike in Covid 19 infections first. Then a spike in deaths second. These spikes will not be immediate. And therefore we will be slow to realize what happened. And restrictions will have to be put back in place.

In the flu pandemic of 1918, many areas had a second wave of deaths. And we will see the same thing happen to us again.

Richer Poorer

In today’s economic landscape the rich get richer and the poor get poorer. The current global pandemic only amplified this disgusting fact.

    Mark Zuckerberg, whose wealth is up $1.08 billion in just a day
    Larry Page (up $956 million)
    Bill Gates (up $931 million)
    Sergey Brin (up $919 million)
    Jeff Bezos (up $907 million)
    Larry Ellison (up $634 million)
    Warren Buffet (up $429 million)
    Steve Ballmer (up $353 million)

At the same time:

  • At least 20.5 million Americans lost their jobs in April
  • Unemployment now at 14.7%, the highest on record in the post-World War II era
  • Some 3.2 million people applied for unemployment benefits just last week
  • Since the COVID-19 pandemic began, 33.5 million Americans have lost their jobs

And if that weren’t enough. The newly unemployed have no health insurance because it was tied to employment. Let that sink in for a second. We are all focusing on staying healthy and now millions of people and their families are not insured.

Let ’em eat cake!

Hodge Podge

City, county, state, federal and individual companies are all doing their best to set policy. Pandemic response primarily should prioritize public health.

But now, jobs and the economy are starting to drive policy. Without decisive and uniform messaging from the top levels of government we have a confused mixture of response and policy.

Confusion is never helpful. Unless your agenda is helped by confusion and misdirection. If the people are your enemy, then just keep them occupied with confusion and debate.

This global pandemic has shocked the world. And it is a golden opportunity to change things for the better.

Wuhan Story

Mystery or Secret? The source of the SARS Cov19 may never be known. If the source is unknown by anyone, then it is a mystery. If it is known but not widely understood, then it is a secret.

The story is maybe more important. How the telling and retelling shape public opinion is powerful. Think about mobs and crowds. Critical thinking doesn’t happen there. Reasoning and thoughtfulness doesn’t happen in groups.

To avoid taking responsibility some may choose deflection and redirection. Anger, confusion and grief are bubbling and boiling. It may be very easy to point a finger and start a stampede.

Making China a target may not turn out well. Many medical supplies, pharmaceuticals and maybe even future vaccines come from China. China as a trading partner is much better than China as an opponent.

Truth should always prevail. But diplomacy and sensitivity cannot be ignored.

China Rising

Pandemic stress is global, economic and social. The world laughs at our leader. The US provides no leadership, aid, sympathy or friendship anywhere in the world.

China steps in and steps up. Belts and Roads is a strategic, unstoppable effort to infiltrate, buy and influence. To work with, deal with and then own. Think about a mob boss, the Communists Chinese are doing the exact same thing. Handing out soccer stadiums in Africa. Buying businesses in economically depressed countries.

Nature abhors a vacuum. The lack of global participation by the US is a vacuum.

Testing Testing

Testing is complicated. Testing is expensive. Lack of testing is the direct result of ‘who pays?’.

No answer to that question results in no testing.

Without testing, we are blind. There is no way to know anything. What to do? When to do it? Who is safe? Only confusion results from no testing. A terrible problem is only made worse with a lack of testing.

Open Open

The desire to lift restrictions and ‘open’ up is strong. It the strongest among science denying, right wing media consumers. The same people who believe this is going away or that this is the flu.

Mask wearing or not wearing a mask is now a visible indicator of education level and political leaning. ‘Liberate!’ is a reaction to authority and state rules and guides. Individual freedom is being infringed. Never mind that this is the worst human health threat. Second only to climate change.